Swalwell exit and Trump endorsement opens path for Dems in California governor race
Swalwell exit and Trump endorsement opens path for Dems in California governor race
JUHI DOSHITue, April 14, 2026 at 12:59 AM UTC
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Rep. Eric Swalwell's exit and President Donald Trump's endorsement of Republican Steve Hilton has rattled California's gubernatorial race, potentially easing Democrats' crowded-field dilemma and opening the door for a front-runner to emerge.
Swalwell, who suspended his campaign on Sunday and announced Monday that he was resigning from Congress in the wake of allegations of sexual assault and inappropriate conduct which he has strongly denied, could present an opportunity for other Democrats in the field to coalesce support and pull ahead.
Swalwell was initially endorsed by major labor groups and prominent voices from California's congressional delegation and electeds in Sacramento.
Rich Pedroncelli/AP - PHOTO: California gubernatorial candidate, Rep. Eric Swalwell appears at a town hall meeting in Sacramento, Calif., April 7, 2026.
"Labor [groups] will drift to [Tom] Steyer. It is aligned with him philosophically and means they can use their funds on other races," said Steven Maviglio, a Sacramento-based Democratic strategist and onetime press secretary to former California Gov. Gray Davis.
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"As the only female candidate in the top tier, Porter may be able to talk about this controversy with more credibility than a male politician," said Dan Schnur, a political science professor at UC Berkeley and University of Southern California. "But another alternative, possibly [Matt] Mahan and maybe [Antonio] Villaraigosa, might be able to take advantage of the opening and become more competitive."
In recent weeks, some Democrats grew increasingly worried that their crowded slate of 10 leading candidates could divide the vote, potentially allowing Hilton and Bianco to secure the top two spots and shut Democrats out of the general election in a state that has not elected a Republican governor in nearly two decades.
While the prospect of a Democrat lockout was always relatively low, California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks penned an open letter on March 3, asking his party's candidates who lack a viable path to victory to drop out before the filing deadline.
In a statement to ABC News after allegations against Swalwell surfaced, Hicks said, "Finally, my call for all -- repeat, all -- candidates for Governor to "honestly assess the viability of their candidacy and campaign" still stands. In fact, that call is more important now than ever before."
But in the wake of Trump's endorsement, the pressure on Democrats to start dropping out has diminished.
"At this point, whether there are two Democratic candidates or eight or 80 it's not really all that relevant, because Trump's endorsement is going to elevate Hilton at Bianco's expense," Schnur said.
"All this pearl-clutching about no Democrats making the final -- I think we can throw that out the window now," Maviglio said.
Jae C. Hong/AP - PHOTO: California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton walks toward the podium to speak during a forum at the California Republican Party Convention in San Diego, April 11, 2026.Trump's endorsement of Hilton
Under California's top-two primary system, the prospect of two Republicans advancing to November has relied on Hilton, a former Fox News host, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco remaining closely matched in the polls. However, Trump's endorsement could mean increased support for Hilton might come from those who previously backed Bianco. If Hilton gains while Bianco's support holds steady or declines, a Democrat could overtake Bianco and acquire the second spot in the general election, strategists say.
Notably, the California Republican Party recently stopped short of endorsing Steve Hilton, with more party delegates supporting Bianco than Hilton but neither reaching the 60% threshold needed to secure the endorsement.
"The 60% threshold is high and those delegates are more traditional conservatives than MAGA voters," said Maviglio.
"Hilton has the resources to take advantage of the Trump endorsement and that should give him enough to make the top two, or close to it," he added.
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The outcome was not a surprise to some strategists, who told ABC News ahead of the party's annual convention that a politically expedient move for Republicans would be to withhold an endorsement, allowing their candidates the best chance to advance as far as possible.
The "gift that keeps on giving"
Rob Stutzman, a Republican consultant who was deputy chief of staff for communications to former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, said Trump's endorsement of Hilton is not the first instance in which his actions have inadvertently helped Democrats politically.
"He's a gift that keeps giving to the Democrats out here," Stutzman said. "The ICE raids in LA gave Gavin Newsom a chance to elevate himself nationally to prominenc. ... the mid-decade redistricting has been a disaster for California Republicans, and Speaker [Mike] Johnson and the White House did nothing to help fight Prop 50 out here. Trump just continues to be, be a real anvil around the neck of Republicans in California."
Alex Brandon/AP - PHOTO: President Donald Trump speaks with reporters outside the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, April 13, 2026.
Democratic San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, who is also running, slammed Trump's endorsement of Hilton in a post on X in another example of Democrats positioning themselves as the alternative to Trump, according to Maviglio.
"By endorsing Steve Hilton, Trump is telling Californians exactly what a Hilton governorship would look like: higher costs, a wrecked economy, and a Sacramento that does Trump's bidding, opens the door to ICE, and attacks our communities instead of defending them," Mahan wrote.
"I'm running to do the opposite, to lower costs, invest in California's future, and stand up to Washington when it comes after us," Mahan added. "The choice could not be more clear."
Parallels to previous races
In the 2024 U.S. Senate race, then-Rep. Adam Schiff and his allies spent millions on elevating Republican candidate Steve Garvey, which helped Schiff to advance past fellow Democratic Rep. Katie Porter into the top two.
However, Maviglio noted that the current Democrats running for governor are not a "runaway known quantity" like Schiff.
Organizations that have endorsed Democratic candidates, including major labor groups, also have the capacity to make similar independent expenditures and could spend strategically to influence which Republican consolidates support.
"While we don't have an Adam Schiff, now we have the CTA, the California Teachers Association, the SEIU. Those are organizations that have more than enough money to advertise Hilton's Trump endorsement to Republican voters," said Jon Fleischman, a Republican political strategist and former executive director of the Republican Party of California.
"About four weeks from now, if the polling shows that the Republicans are still running one and two, it increases the odds that unions or Tom Steyer would fund an effort to try to elevate one of the Republicans, and that obviously now would be Hilton," Stutzman said.
Jae C. Hong/AP - PHOTO: California gubernatorial candidate Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco walks toward the podium to speak at the California Republican Party Convention in San Diego, April 11, 2026.How have Republican candidates responded?
Hilton responded to the idea that Trump's endorsement could help Democrats.
"What a joke these California Democrats have become. Their primary is a shambles, their candidates are mired in sleaze and scandal, and above all, their record is one of total, catastrophic failure," Hilton said in a statement. . ... Of course, they just want to endlessly talk about Trump, they've got nothing else to say. No change, no new ideas, no hope for Californians."
In a post on X, Bianco also reacted to the news of Trump's endorsement, saying, "this race is about the future of California, not any one endorsement.
"For too long, politicians and insiders from Sacramento to Washington have tried to pick our leaders for us," Bianco said. "That's not leadership, that's a coronation, and it's exactly how we ended up with the failed leadership Californians are living with today."
Bianco added, "Quite frankly, I have repeatedly said that a Fox News host, courting a president's endorsement, will never win in California. For me, this has never been about being the top Republican. I have promised to be a governor for all Californians."
Source: “AOL Money”
