Gas prices could give Democrats messaging revenge in 2026 elections

Phillip M. Bailey, USA TODAYSat, April 4, 2026 at 9:04 AM UTC

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As $4 a gallon gas forces Americans to change their spending habits, Democrats are revving their 2026 midterm messaging on the potentially potent issue.

The average retail price to fill up hasn't been this high since August 2022 when Republicans were relentless in their focus on gas prices and successfully took back Congress, stalling the rest of former President Joe Biden's agenda.

Democratic challengers in swing districts and competitive states are looking to use the same weapon against Republicans by noting that President Donald Trump's ongoing war with Iran caused prices to skyrocket by more than $1 per gallon in a matter of weeks.

The issue also helps Democrats position themselves as fighting for economic relief.

Experts say gas price hikes infuriate Americans more than most other goods.

"It's a sign that people can't do as much as they want," Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, which moniters fuel prices, told USA TODAY. "That's why rising gas prices become so bitter for Americans. It really feels oppressive in a different way."

Global markets determine the price at the pump more than who is in the White House or controls Congress, he said, but Trump's fingerprints are more on the recent spike because the war he started has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world’s oil shipments and about 20% of the world’s seaborne liquified natural gas. Moreover, Trump's attempts to take credit for lower prices earlier in his term may link him to prices in voters' minds.

"President Trump has been touting low energy prices, saying 'I'm going to be the one to drill, baby drill' and now the chickens are coming to roost," De Haan added. "If the U.S. hadn't taken action to attack Iran, we likely would not have seen oil prices jumping the way they have."

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the political arm for House Democrats, launched six-second spots on Facebook and Instagram showing a rising price at the pump in late Marchc. Those brief ads are targeting about four dozen battleground districts that the group believes can be flipped. It's part of their larger pitch on affordability to voters this fall on what the DCCC describes as Trump's failure to lower costs on food, health care and other utilities.

In Pennsylvania, the average gallon has shot up by almost $1 in the past month, according to AAA’s average fuel prices. Among Democrats' targets is Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick's district in the southeastern corner of the Keystone State, where the average cost to fill up has climbed to $4.10 a gallon.

Democratic congressional candidate Bob Harvie said he's seen gas stations in Bucks County, a Philadelphia suburb, with prices as high as $4.19 a gallon. He noted Fitzpatrick, who didn't explicitly support or condemn the air strikes in February, voted against the March 5 war powers resolution in Congress to curb the president's actions in Iran and has supported other parts of Trump's agenda such as the "one, big beautiful" bill.

Gas prices in Washington DC, on March 15, 2026, amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

"Quite frankly, people are pissed off," Harvie said in an interview with USA TODAY. "Things are already rigged against them in terms of the benefits going to people at the top and you got members of Congress who are just letting all this happen, standing aside while Donald Trump runs this economy to the ground."

While gas prices have been potent argument during past campaigns, experts warn that those costs tend to fluctuate and may come down before November. They also note that it might not matter as much in hyper-partisan times.

Nonetheless, as the 2026 midterm elections approach, the Democratic pitch is clear: the Iran war is an expense that the average American household cannot afford.

White House promises 'prices will plummet' when Iran war ends

President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before departing West Palm Beach, Florida, aboard Air Force One on March 23, 2026.

Speaking to the nation in a primetime address April 1, Trump touched on gas prices by repeating previous claims that this is a "short term" situation. He blamed the situation on the Iranian regime's "deranged terror attacks against commercial oil tankers and neighboring countries" in the Persian Gulf region.

Once the conflict ends, he said, then the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway in the global oil market, will reopen and prices will fall.

"They're going to want to be able to sell oil because that's all they have to try and rebuild," Trump said. "It will resume the flowing and the gas prices will rapidly come back down. Stock prices will rapidly go back up."

White House officials point out that before the war families were saving "hundreds of dollars at the pump," when a gallon of gas fell below $3 a gallon for first time since 2021. The president will "double down on that proven approach" following the conclusion of the military operation, officials tell USA TODAY.

During the State of the Union address in February, Trump bragged about how gasoline had fallen below $2.30 when he spoke to lawmakers. He mentioned a visit to Iowa where he "saw $1.85 a gallon for gasoline."

AAA says it costs roughly $3.42 a gallon in Iowa now, up from about $2.63 a month ago.

A whopping 76% of Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling the situation at the pump, according to a CNN/SSRS poll released March 31. That includes 44% of GOP respondents and 83% of independents who give the president a thumbs down on gas prices.

1 / 0Trump boasts business at State of the Union, clashes with Dems

President Donald Trump delivered the first State of the Union of his second term on Feb. 24, 2026, promoting the economy and calling the U.S. “the hottest country anywhere in the world.” He highlighted growth in business and manufacturing and pushed his immigration agenda, citing mass deportations and a sharp drop in border crossings. The speech came as Trump faces pushback from the Supreme Court over tariffs, rising tensions with Iran and a 60% disapproval rating that threatens to hurt Republicans.

Republicans broadly supported the administration's military action in Iran, but most GOP incumbents in competitive races have noticeably ducked addressing rising gas prices while defending the war itself.

When the bombing began on Feb. 28, for instance, Fitzpatrick argued a nuclear-armed Iran "is not an option" and called the foreign country "the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism."

"For decades, the Iranian regime has methodically built a network of terror, proxy militias, missile proliferation, and regional coercion designed to destabilize the Middle East, threaten American interests and openly calls for the destruction of sovereign nations," the Pennsylvania congressman said in a statement.

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Fitzpatrick, who has condemned Trump's rhetoric on cultural issues, joined other House Republicans in rejecting a war powers resolution in March, thus paving the way for the Middle East conflict to continue. He has said little about the gasoline hikes this past month.

That contrasts with how the congressman was joined at the hip with Trump last October when regular gasoline was trending below $3 per gallon. The National Republican Congressional Committee said at the time it was a "direct result" of the GOP putting "American energy first."

Harvie, his Democratic challenger, said that underscores how Fitzpatrick is failing to address the district's current needs or lobby for alternative energy sources that could be useful in the current situation. He points out how the Republican incumbent has taken campaign contributions from oil and gas companies, and supported Trump's "one, big beautiful" bill that repealed subsidies for electric vehicles.

"(Fitzpatrick) sold them out over the summer by supporting Trump's budget bill, which took out money that was going to go to those kinds of programs," Harvie said.

Asked about how the GOP plans to fend off these type of attacks, NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said that when Democrats reduce oil and gas drilling − as the Biden administration attempted − it also raises energy costs.

"If they cared about lowering prices, they’d stop catering to the far left and start supporting the pro-energy policies that deliver real relief for working families," Marinella said.

Energy analysts say oil prices are set by global supply and global demand, not just domestic production. That is why American consumers are now paying more for gasoline even though the U.S. produces more oil than it consumes.

'I want him to be right': GOP holds breath amid Trump's optimism

Sherri Hill fills up some of her tank Tuesday, March 24, 2026, at 16th St. and Arlington Ave on the Eastside in Indianapolis

For Republican incumbents facing the brunt of voter's anger over how much it costs to fill up there is little recourse.

"I want him to be right," Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, said in a March 19 interview with NewsMax when asked if the spike in gas prices is temporary.

"I want him to take the actions to make that so," he added. "That's why I'm for a war that is brief and successful."

Husted is engaged in one of the more critical Senate battles this year that could determine who controls the upper chamber. He is facing former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who is blasting his GOP rival about the roughly $1 a gallon increase over the past month at Ohio gas stations.

"Ohioans are already struggling to make ends meet, and now they’re paying record prices for gas and diesel," Brown said in a March 31 statement provided to USA TODAY.

John Mark Hansen, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, said historically the price at the pump has been one of the easiest ways for voters to judge the job either the president or members of Congress are doing.

"It is particularly visible for lots of people because we're a very car dependent society," he said. "When people go to the gas station they have to shell out more cash or get charged more on their credit cards when they fill up."

1 / 0See how the Iran war’s fallout is hitting the Middle East

See how Middle Eastern countries are caught in the crossfire of the war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran.Bahrain Smoke rises in the sky after blasts were heard in Manama, Bahrain, Feb. 28, 2026.

Embattled Republicans have already begun looking for other solutions. Rep. Mike Lawler, R-New York, introduced a bill to boost domestic energy production. On March 20, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican, suspended the state’s motor fuel tax for 60 days.

Typically, Hansen said, the sitting president would be OK with members of Congress in their own party distancing themselves from the White House. But Trump's insistence on loyalty might further doom the GOP in the fall, he said.

"Under a normal administration, the president would understand if someone felt like they needed to distance themselves from him," Hansen said. "The president would basically say, 'I need the Republican Congress, do whatever you need to do to get yourself back into office.' But we do not have a president who acts that way."

The University of Virginia Center for Politics found gas prices and presidential approval ratings have been closely connected since the 1970s. That decade started with the 1973 oil embargo by Arab countries who were members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, and ended with the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which many attribute to helping end Jimmy Carter's presidency.

The center's analysis, however, showed that in recent years gas prices don't move the needle on presidential approval ratings as much as in the past.

But Democrats are betting that lawmakers in battleground districts won't be as well insulated.

In Wisconsin gas prices sit at roughly $3.77, according to AAA, and Democrats are keenly focused on Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden, whose district is considered a toss-up by most forecasters. He has described Iran as a "destabilizing force" in the Middle East that had to be stopped.

Democratic challenger Rebecca Cook said in an interview voters are much more price conscious about their basic needs than global conflicts, and that they expect their representative to look out for them first and foremost.

"Voters in my district were promised no more forever wars, and I think that this is President Trump going back on that promise and not putting America first," she said. "Putting ourselves in this conflict with Iran has only made things worse for, in particular, working-class Americans."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Gas prices could give Democrats messaging revenge in 2026 elections

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